What Changed in China Tech - Column Overview
Overview
What Changed is a column that identifies directional shifts in China’s tech ecosystem—changes that will still matter three to six months from now.
Published most Thursdays when genuine shifts emerge. Not a weekly roundup, not meant to be exhaustive. Think of it as a judgment recalibration point.
How It Works
Each issue does three things:
1. Five Signals
Concrete, verifiable developments from the past week. Not predictions or opinions—just what actually happened.
2. One Hidden Variable
The underlying shift in competitive dynamics, cost structures, or policy constraints that explains why these signals appeared now.
3. What to Watch
Three specific monitoring points with observable metrics to track whether the identified change is accelerating, stabilizing, or reversing.
The Framework
This column applies six principles for understanding China’s tech ecosystem:
Multi-tiered markets create unique trial-and-error advantages - Don’t expect winner-take-all outcomes
Trial speed beats technology leadership - “Good enough” matters more than “most advanced”
Government is the largest player, not the referee - Policy shapes outcomes more than market forces
Ideological differences are the fundamental constraint - Many “strategies” are actually forced responses
Different industries have different overcapacity logic - Manufacturing vs. software overcapacity work differently
“Policy boom → overcapacity” is the core cycle - Identifying the phase determines investment logic
Free vs. Premium
Free: This Fortnight’s Question + Five Signals
Premium: Full Hidden Variables analysis + What to Watch framework
Why “Most Thursdays”?
Quality over cadence. Some weeks produce more noise than signal. When that happens, we don’t publish.
If you see a new issue, it means something genuinely changed in a way worth recalibrating for.